The BP oil disaster has affected the markets share of BP and PetroChina, both of which have significant markets share in China.
However, analysts have questioned the impact on the global oil market, given that both companies are already in a global recession.
The market was hit hard by the oil spill and is already seeing a price increase, which is the opposite of what was predicted, according to analysts at Credit Suisse.
Credit Suse’s Dr. David B. Grosman, said that the price increase for China will be negative.
“We expect the Chinese share of the global crude oil market to decline by 5 percent in the fourth quarter of next year,” he said.
“The fall in global crude prices and increased risk exposure are likely to have an impact on global crude market shares.
The global crude share is likely to fall to below 80 percent in Q4 2020 from its current 83 percent.”
Dr. Grooms said that oil companies need to have their oil reserves in the ground in order to be able to use the crude market for their production.
“China’s oil supply will be limited for the foreseeable future, meaning the market will need to be refilled with the same type of crude that is currently in the market,” he explained.
“This means the price of oil will need increased production, as the demand for oil will increase.
We also expect the price for refined products to rise.”
The analysts also suggested that the market may continue to weaken in the years ahead.
“We believe that the world’s largest oil producer, China, will experience significant declines in the global demand for crude oil in the coming years, and the demand from non-energy consuming countries in the developing world will remain strong,” Dr. Griesman said.
The analysts noted that China has a large amount of domestic production and that domestic consumption will likely increase in the future.